The World Energy Outlook: we don't have enough time

The IEA (International Energy Agency) just released the 2007 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) which makes projections about the world energy market to the year 2030.

The report predicts an "earthquake" in energy markets (under current policies) due to

- drastically increased energy demand (but limited ability for supply and distribution to meet that demand)

- increased risk of climate change (up to a 6°C rise in global temperature)

China and India are the focus of this report because they are projected to be the greatest contributors to increased demand as they grow their economies in the coming decades. However, "blame" is not placed on these countries because in 2030, when they are the largest energy consumers, many Indians and Chinese still will not drive cars or have access to electricity. So it is clear that clean energy must be developed and implemented so these nations can continue to grow and meet the needs of their citizens without contributing to global climate change and energy market problems.

In a CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) seminar last Friday, IEA executive director, Nobuo Tanaka emphasized that we have enough money, we have the energy sources/technology, but we don't have enough time to address the problems. He pointed out that to achieve the IPCC recommendations, emissions must peak in 2012. This means that every power plant built after 2012 must be carbon free, and some carbon-emitting plants must have early retirements. That means we only have a short amount of time to proliferate relatively expensive technologies - so based on past and current trends of technology development and transfer, we don't have enough time. The only way we can meet these goals is to make drastic policy, research, lifestyle, and business changes.

While the WEO leaves us with a grim outlook under current policies, Tanaka posits recommendations based on projections using alternate scenarios.

-Price carbon

-Enforce regulations (especially in China and India) on

-air conditioners

-refrigerators

-building standards

-cars

*If all Chinese bought air conditioners and refrigerators that had at least US efficiencies, 85 TWh of electricity could be saved (this is as much as is produced by a large hydroelectric dam).

-Improve efficiency

-Increase use of renewable energy

-Use more nuclear power*

* (I personally am very wary of the prospects of investing in nuclear unless and until we can safely manage all waste produced from every plant.)

The WEO (and the IPCC report) make it clear that we are in dire need of global proliferation of clean energy - now. The world's economy and environment – and our future - desperately depend on it.